Ground Zero East Lansing (G0EL) is a blog dedicated to Michigan State Sporting events, and does not in any way condone or advocate burning East Lansing to the ground, no matter how flammable that couch looks on your porch.
Defend, especially on the interior. Texas is the #12 team in the nation in defensive efficiency; their opponents score 0.833 points per possession (anything under 1 is pretty good, get that number below 0.85 and we're talking national title contender). They're also one of the best blocking teams in the nation. Texas blocks 17.6% of all opponents' shots.
Shoot the dang three. Well, this item bodes well. Texas' leading scorer, A.J. Abrams, has been shooting 47% from behind the arc. He's also averaging about 36 minutes a games so expect to see him a lot. Texas also has two other players shooting above 38% on their threes (Damion James and Connor Atchley, the latter of which looks like he was kidnapped from the Bo Ryan Cloning Facility of Tall White Guys that Can Shoot), which will spell trouble for the Spartans if their three point defense stays mediocre.
Hold onto the ball. Texas only turns over the ball about 13 times a game, a little better than average. Don't expect to rip the ball away from Abrams, he only turns it over about once per game.
DO WE HAVE A CHANCE? WHERE DO THEY SUCK?
Anything involving the free throw line. The Longhorns shoot 61.2% from the foul line, 307th in Division I. They have four players in their main rotation that shoot under 60%, so if the game is close in the end, there should always be a favorable person to foul.
Their offensive percentage inside the arc is strikingly average. UT shoots 48% on their twos, and that percentage puts them at 171st in the nation.
But yet they still take many more twos than threes. Only 25% of Texas' shots are threes, despite how well they shoot the ball from 20 feet, nine inches.
ALRIGHT, I'LL BITE. HOW DOES MSU WIN THIS GAME?
Chris Allen becomes unconscious behind the arc. Texas has a very strong interior defense, so accurate perimeter shooting will be pivotal for extending the interior defense and creating cracks for passing lanes inside. Allen can help immensely if he makes Texas guard him anywhere inside 25 feet.
By being unafraid to foul anywhere inside the arc. This point is tailor-made for Raymar to excel. Make Texas earn a victory by hitting their foul shots.
HOLD ONTO THE CONSARNED BALL! Self-explanatory, no stats needed.
WHAT HAPPENS IN HOUSTON?
I believe that this game is going to be nip and tuck all the way through. However, I think MSU is going to create their own undoing with a few too many turnovers and a few too many Abrams threes.
What is The Citadel, you ask? The Citadel, aka the Military College of South Carolina, was founded in Charleston in 1844. Less than two decades later, Fort Sumter in Charleston was attacked, and the Civil War (or the War of Yankee Arrogance, depending on where in this country you were taught) began. I'm not saying the two are related, but I am heavily, heavily urging you to reach that conclusion on your own. Now, about 150 years later, MSU looks to score one for the Yanks. Here's the rundown of The Citadel's team.
The Citadel's record is 5-5 this season, with wins against schools you didn't even know were schools, such as Grace Bible, Cincinnati Christian, and Charleston Southern.
In other news, Charleston is apparently big enough to have a directional school.
And the losses? They lost to Iowa by 22 and Virginia Commonwealth by 23.
On kenpom.com, they're the 320th ranked team out of a total 344 teams (take that, North Carolina Central!), and their defense is ranked 332nd - worse than Alcorn State, who you last saw being depantsed in the Breslin Center.
The one thing they've done well so far - hit the offensive boards. They're the 44th ranked team in offensive rebounding percentage (measures how often a team grabs an offensive rebound off a miss). 40% of their shots are from behind the three point line (uh oh), but they make less than 30% of those shots (relief).
Kenpom.com predicts an 85-52 MSU win, with a zero percent chance of The Citadel winning. This game will mainly be a tune-up for the big game in Houston on Saturday against Texas. Suton has been practicing since Monday, and hopefully he gets a few minutes of playing time. That said, I expect this game to be a bit slower than the Alcorn State game, but still should be an easy win because the Spartans are playing a low-major team, and are playing at home.
Someway, somehow, get turnovers while holding onto the ball. In the games against the better teams that they've won (Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin), the Spartans had a positive turnover margin. This'll have to happen again, and I give it about a 50-50 shot of happening.
Ringer must run successfully, especially to the outside. It seems to be every time Ringer tries to bounce it outside, he'll end up getting a couple yards, which is much better than running it straight into PSU's extremely capable front seven. Only Shonn Greene has been able to be successful running the ball this year against the Nittany Lions. However, Iowa has a better OL than MSU, and I'm just not sure the linemen can move fast enough to provide the necessary blocks. The chances that Ringer goes over 100 yards and averages over 4.0 YPC - 15%.
The defense cannot allow more than 2 plays of more than 20 yards. Penn State's offense may seem to be completing fewer big plays lately, and hopefully, that's the way that'll stay. However, with playmakers like Derrick Williams and Evan Royster on offense, one never knows when they'll bust a big play. Chances of this happening: 35%.
Multiplying 0.5*0.15*0.35 = A 2.63% chance of MSU winning this game. This seems about right. Hey, at least there's a chance, but it goes without saying that I'd feel much more comfortable if Anthony Morelli was behind center for Penn State. MSU will try their best, but fall short. A New Year's Day bowl is nothing to scoff at, and my only complaint is that the Outback Bowl starts at 10 AM Central Time.
When you saw this week's opponent, chances are one of these three images popped into your head:
If you immediately thought of the first image, you should be looking for a Zoobooks-themed blog. If the second image popped into your head, come back in a couple weeks, I'm getting to it. If the third image popped into your head, you're in the right spot for my Eastern Michigan preview.
Who did EMU play last week?
A high school JV team named Indiana State, posing as a 1-AA team. Eastern put up more than 600 yards of offense in toasting the Sycamores 52-0. Eastern has had a functioning offense in the past couple years; they did beat MAC champs Central Michigan last year by beating them the only way possible for non-BCS teams - putting up more than 40 points. Still...it's Indiana State. I'm pretty sure Larry Bird could start at any position for that team.
What will the game plan be for MSU this week?
In the offense, rushing, and lots of it. Essentially, it'll be the same game plan that the Spartans used last week against Cal, except that this time I believe that it'll work, and it won't devolve into Hoyer playing a game of Five Dollars with his receivers and the secondary. On the defensive side, I believe it's going to be plain ol' vanilla, stop the rush and make them beat us with the pass. Andy Schmidt is a decent MAC-level quarterback, and can make a play or two when he needs to, but he's no Dan LeFevour.
When will MSU break this game wide open?
Sometime in the second quarter. EMU might put up a good fight for a couple series, and then depth should start to take over, and when it does, expect Ringer to essentially play Power Ball, American Gladiators Style, running from one end zone to the other. Also, expect more sacks than last week, I have a feeling this is where Trevor Anderson makes his presence felt.
Where might a problem exist for MSU?
If anywhere, it's going to be in the secondary, particularly the safeties. Davis-Clark still isn't 100%, Jenrette is still off the team for "unspecified reasons", and Otis Wiley is only one man. EMU has the ability to complete a few passes, so if the pass rush isn't working, that could lead to a couple of 40-50 yard plays down the sidelines.
Why should I watch this game?
OK, I'll level with you - if you're not an MSU fan, you shouldn't be watching this game. Go home, and catch some other game at noon. Watch Ohio at Ohio State, or Miami of Ohio at Michigan, or something along those lines. The tailgate before the game will probably be more interesting than the game itself (at least I hope so), I will be down with the student masses at the tennis courts, cheering on MSU, one 24 oz. Coors Light at a time?
How does this game end?
I've said this before, I'll say it again - even during the John L. Smith era, this game was always a guaranteed 4 TD victory. Expect depth to become a factor, the defensive to improve, blah blah blah blah blah.
MSU is 2-1 all time against the Golden Bears, with the last game in 2002. This was the game that sounded the death march for the Bobby Williams era, as Kyle Boller shredded the secondary, and Cal won 46-22. All of a sudden, the Jeff Tedford era was off and running. Four years later, the greatest moment in Golden Bears football history happened:
To this date, no other football program in history has had a postgame celebration topped off by one of its players ghost riding da whip on an injury cart. Kudos to you Marshawn Lynch.
Cal Rushing vs. MSU Rush Defense
There's a lot of optimism in the rushing game this year, mainly due to Jahvid Best. Best was the Bears' kick returner, and also rushed for over 7 yards a carry last year. Pretty impressive, but keep in mind that number's based on only 27 rushes, which is a pretty small sample to draw conclusions from. Nevertheless, expect him to be a good to great running back for Cal this season, and MSU will get him fresh. Cal's O-line is more good than they are bad, even if their starting LT is out. Blocking will not be their Achilles' heel.
Can MSU stop the rush? It's going to be a bit dodgy with all the new starters on the defensive line. I'd feel more confident if Greg Jones was starting in the middle; however, he's starting outside due to Adam Decker's emergence as the #3 LB in the unit. I expect MSU to get their fair share of stops, but overall, I'm going to have to say... Advantage: Cal (slight to moderate)
Cal Passing vs. MSU Pass defense California has finally decided on a starting QB; he is Kevin Riley. In his press conference, Tedford said Riley can "make plays with his legs" (provided there's more than 30 seconds left in the game), so presumptively that's why he got the nod over last year's starter, Nate Longshore. However, Longshore will play at a predetermined time by Tedford in this game, so there'll be a little of both. Also, Cal's starting left tackle, he who can supposedly handle 245 lb. defensive ends at 80%, is most likely out. About the receivers, Tedford said that there would be "a bit of a learning curve", the kind of quote that does not promote confidence in the first game.
As for MSU, the secondary will still be missing Roderick Jenrette most likely, but Kendall Davis-Clark should be a more than adequate replacement. Otis Wiley will hopefully play like he did the second half of last year, and Chris L. Rucker and Ross Weaver are both experienced corners. Let's hope this doesn't turn into the abortion the Northwestern game was last year.
Edge: MSU (Moderate)
MSU Rushing vs. Cal Rush Defense
For MSU, it's Javon Ringer, Javon Ringer, and Javon Ringer. The highlight of this game will be which running back can produce the most - Best or Ringer. A.J. Jimmerson and Andre Anderson will get a few carries as well, along with whoever's playing FB (Hawken or McPherson) when a 3rd and short comes around.
As for Cal, they've switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4, most likely to highlight their LB corps, which might just be the best set of linebackers in the Pac-10. However, the defensive line has looked iffy, and if MSU lines up in a power I, that might force Cal to go deeper on the line.
Advantage: MSU (slight to moderate)
MSU Passing vs. Cal Pass Defense
Brian Hoyer has had a long, long time to think about this game. He had a performance that could only be described as horrendous in the Champps Sports Bowl, in which, I believe, he went red-green colorblind, which is the best explanation for why he threw so many picks to the Boston College secondary. The only returning receivers with any tangible experience are Mark Dell and Deon Curry. B.J. Cunningham, Fred Smith and Keshawn Martin are all talented but have the same amount of college game experience, which would be zero. It'll take a couple games for Hoyer to get used to them.
The Cal secondary was average to above average last year, and some of that should carry over. They'll need to be good, because they most likely won't get any push with the defensive line.
Advantage: Push
Special Teams
All of MSU's returners are new. It'll be intersting to see how Jimmerson and Davis-Clark return kickoffs, and how Wiley returns punts. Compare those three to Jahvid Best, and I think it's obvious to see who gets the Best out of that matchup (Sorry, I knew I wasn't going to make it through without one Best related pun). Cal's starting kicker last year, Justin Kay, was benched to make way for true freshman David Seawright. Well Justin, that's what will happen if you only go 2 of 5 of your 30-40 yarders. Brett Swenson is still solid from inside the 40 for MSU. At last, we get to the true pyrotechnics of this preview: punting. Cal has two redshirt freshmen on the depth chart, while MSU has do-it-all punter Aaron Bates - emergency 3rd string QB, and also was in the bottom 10 in net punting in 1-A. Ouch.
Edge: Cal (Moderate)
Coaching
How does one determine who's going to have the better game plan? I've always hated these parts of predictions, were the writer see two evenly matched coaches, looks at tea leaves and portents who will have the better game plan. I'll say this much: Dantonio and Tedford are two good I-A coaches. Let's call this part a push, and keep going.
Edge: Push
Prediction
This'll be a good, close game. Both teams are relatively green at wide receiver, have explosive running backs, and experience at QB. It's going to come down to defense, namely the defensive line. I gotta believe that come the 3rd and 4th quarter, MSU will tire out the 3-4 of Cal by running Ringer et al. up the middle. It'll be close, but MSU comes out of Berkley the winner.
Final Score: MSU 28, Cal 21.
Coming up Tomorrow: My Guest Lecturer piece on MSU for EDSBS that didn't quite make the chopping block.
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