Longhorn'd - The Texas Preview

The Dossier on Texas:

GENERAL INFORMATION

• Win-Loss Record: 9-1
• Best Wins: UCLA, Villanova (Neutral Court), Oregon
• The Loss: Notre Dame (@ Maui)
• #5 in both AP/Coaches' Polls
• #22 in Kenpom ranking

WHAT THE LONGHORNS DO WELL

• Defend, especially on the interior. Texas is the #12 team in the nation in defensive efficiency; their opponents score 0.833 points per possession (anything under 1 is pretty good, get that number below 0.85 and we're talking national title contender). They're also one of the best blocking teams in the nation. Texas blocks 17.6% of all opponents' shots.
• Shoot the dang three. Well, this item bodes well. Texas' leading scorer, A.J. Abrams, has been shooting 47% from behind the arc. He's also averaging about 36 minutes a games so expect to see him a lot. Texas also has two other players shooting above 38% on their threes (Damion James and Connor Atchley, the latter of which looks like he was kidnapped from the Bo Ryan Cloning Facility of Tall White Guys that Can Shoot), which will spell trouble for the Spartans if their three point defense stays mediocre.
• Hold onto the ball. Texas only turns over the ball about 13 times a game, a little better than average. Don't expect to rip the ball away from Abrams, he only turns it over about once per game.

DO WE HAVE A CHANCE? WHERE DO THEY SUCK?

• Anything involving the free throw line. The Longhorns shoot 61.2% from the foul line, 307th in Division I. They have four players in their main rotation that shoot under 60%, so if the game is close in the end, there should always be a favorable person to foul.
• Their offensive percentage inside the arc is strikingly average. UT shoots 48% on their twos, and that percentage puts them at 171st in the nation.
• But yet they still take many more twos than threes. Only 25% of Texas' shots are threes, despite how well they shoot the ball from 20 feet, nine inches.

ALRIGHT, I'LL BITE. HOW DOES MSU WIN THIS GAME?

• Chris Allen becomes unconscious behind the arc. Texas has a very strong interior defense, so accurate perimeter shooting will be pivotal for extending the interior defense and creating cracks for passing lanes inside. Allen can help immensely if he makes Texas guard him anywhere inside 25 feet.
• By being unafraid to foul anywhere inside the arc. This point is tailor-made for Raymar to excel. Make Texas earn a victory by hitting their foul shots.
• HOLD ONTO THE CONSARNED BALL! Self-explanatory, no stats needed.

WHAT HAPPENS IN HOUSTON?

I believe that this game is going to be nip and tuck all the way through. However, I think MSU is going to create their own undoing with a few too many turnovers and a few too many Abrams threes.

Texas 73, MSU 65.

A Brief Preview of The Citadel

What is The Citadel, you ask? The Citadel, aka the Military College of South Carolina, was founded in Charleston in 1844. Less than two decades later, Fort Sumter in Charleston was attacked, and the Civil War (or the War of Yankee Arrogance, depending on where in this country you were taught) began. I'm not saying the two are related, but I am heavily, heavily urging you to reach that conclusion on your own. Now, about 150 years later, MSU looks to score one for the Yanks. Here's the rundown of The Citadel's team.

• The Citadel's record is 5-5 this season, with wins against schools you didn't even know were schools, such as Grace Bible, Cincinnati Christian, and Charleston Southern.
• In other news, Charleston is apparently big enough to have a directional school.
• And the losses? They lost to Iowa by 22 and Virginia Commonwealth by 23.
• On kenpom.com, they're the 320th ranked team out of a total 344 teams (take that, North Carolina Central!), and their defense is ranked 332nd - worse than Alcorn State, who you last saw being depantsed in the Breslin Center.
• The one thing they've done well so far - hit the offensive boards. They're the 44th ranked team in offensive rebounding percentage (measures how often a team grabs an offensive rebound off a miss). 40% of their shots are from behind the three point line (uh oh), but they make less than 30% of those shots (relief).

Kenpom.com predicts an 85-52 MSU win, with a zero percent chance of The Citadel winning. This game will mainly be a tune-up for the big game in Houston on Saturday against Texas. Suton has been practicing since Monday, and hopefully he gets a few minutes of playing time. That said, I expect this game to be a bit slower than the Alcorn State game, but still should be an easy win because the Spartans are playing a low-major team, and are playing at home.

Prediction: MSU 92, The Citadel 64.

A Concise PSU-MSU Preview

Three things MSU must do to win:

• Someway, somehow, get turnovers while holding onto the ball. In the games against the better teams that they've won (Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin), the Spartans had a positive turnover margin. This'll have to happen again, and I give it about a 50-50 shot of happening.
• Ringer must run successfully, especially to the outside. It seems to be every time Ringer tries to bounce it outside, he'll end up getting a couple yards, which is much better than running it straight into PSU's extremely capable front seven. Only Shonn Greene has been able to be successful running the ball this year against the Nittany Lions. However, Iowa has a better OL than MSU, and I'm just not sure the linemen can move fast enough to provide the necessary blocks. The chances that Ringer goes over 100 yards and averages over 4.0 YPC - 15%.
• The defense cannot allow more than 2 plays of more than 20 yards. Penn State's offense may seem to be completing fewer big plays lately, and hopefully, that's the way that'll stay. However, with playmakers like Derrick Williams and Evan Royster on offense, one never knows when they'll bust a big play. Chances of this happening: 35%.

Multiplying 0.5*0.15*0.35 = A 2.63% chance of MSU winning this game. This seems about right. Hey, at least there's a chance, but it goes without saying that I'd feel much more comfortable if Anthony Morelli was behind center for Penn State. MSU will try their best, but fall short. A New Year's Day bowl is nothing to scoff at, and my only complaint is that the Outback Bowl starts at 10 AM Central Time.

Final Score: PSU 27, MSU 13.

Big Ten Basketball Preview: The Dregs

Big Ten Basketball has already started in earnest yesterday, with Michigan defeating an over matched Husky team from Michigan Tech. Since I will not start paying heavy attention until MSU's season premiere against Idaho on Sunday, I figured I would start my preview now. Here are the dregs of the Big Ten, for which making the College Basketball Invitational at the end of the season (finally, an answer to the question: which Division 1 team is 98th best?) would be an accomplishment.

One more note - If you want thought-out, statistical analysis of College Basketball, I cannot recommend Spartans Weblog highly enough. That said, he was not going to do an in-depth Big Ten preview, so hopefully I can fill that void with a little bit of thoughtful analysis and a lot of guessing. Without further ado:

11. Northwestern

I toyed with putting Indiana with this spot, but then Northwestern lost their first exhibition game to Robert Morris, an NAIA school, and that was the last brick that sealed Willie Wildcat in his tomb, crying for his cask of Amontillado.

Player to know: Kevin Coble - Probably most well known for taking part of last season off to take care of his mother stricken with cancer, the 6-8 forward would have most likely been All Big-Ten Preseason if he had played in more games last season. That said, if Northwestern has any chance this season, he'll have to average 30 ppg, 15 rebounds per game, and make the special 10 point basket from Rock 'n Jock 20 feet above the hardwood.

This season will be a success if...They have a winning record this season.

This season will be a failure if... It's Northwestern. How much worse could it get.

10. Iowa

Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. Two years ago you were upset by a 14 seed in the NCAAs, and in the past year, they turned the ball over every one in four times they had possession (thanks College Basketball Prospectus!). They'd have hope if their two top scorers didn't leave this past season (Justin Johnson to graduation, Tony Freeman to transfer), and the young Hawkeyes look to spend another year in the dregs. They shouldn't be down long though, not with Todd Lickliter (the previous mastermind at Butler) as their head coach.

Player to know: Jake Kelly - He's an anomaly in the shell of a 6-6 wing, as in his three-point FG percentage (43.5%) last year was better than his overall FG percentage (40.8%). If Iowa has any shot at a competitive season, he'll have to maintain his clip from beyond 20 feet, nine inches, and improve his shot within the perimeter.

This season will be a success if... The Hawkeyes get a few upsets in Carver Arena (not like the 42-36 abomination MSU suffered. Watch that game, and you can literally see the rims replaced by peach baskets.), and set themselves in position to win a first-round Big Ten tournament game.
This season will be a failure if... Iowa doesn't progress, and the lengthened three-pointer affects shooting more than thought. If that occurs, look for fans to pine for the days of Steve Alford.

9. Indiana

Indiana's postseason could be defined in two words: scorched earth. Goodbye Kelvin Sampson, goodbye everyone who played meaningful minutes. Senior wing Kyle Taber was the sole survivor, and now under Tom Crean, the Hoosiers hope to reach to the stars and grab ten wins by the tail. The new talent isn't anything to write home about; none of Tom Crean's seven recruits for this year were ranked over three stars by Rivals. Still, I'm intrigued. Crean's a good coach, and with no expectations, this team might pull a couple surprises. Then again, it might duke it out with Northwestern for 10th place like two hobos fighting over a bindle.

Player to know: Kyle Taber - As in if you're an Indiana fan, he'll be the only player you know from last year (and no, I didn't forget about Brett Finkelmeier or Jeremiah Rivers. If they're playing serious minutes though, look for the fans at Assembly Hall to pull a Knight and throw their seats onto the court). The forward won't have to be the second coming of D.J. White, but he will have to, at the very least, be a steady source of rebounds.

This season will be a success if... The Hoosiers pull off four to six wins in conference, and get the ball rolling for next year.

This season will be a failure if... Indiana wins two games or less in conference, and the grumbles start about seven more years on Crean's contract.

Parts two and three to come this weekend.

Big Ten Picks, Week Nine

Michigan State 27, Michigan 13
See here for a complete explanation. In other news, Varsity Blue believes MSU has a turnover problem, citing the OSU game as evidence. Yet he completely forgets that MSU had a +10 turnover differential before that game, and that turnovers greatly aided the Iowa and Northwestern victories. Two words for ya buddy: statistical and outlier.

Northwestern 34, Indiana 13
Northwestern continues its march for a bowl game below the Mason-Dixon line. Its fan goes wild.

Illinois 24, Wisconsin 10
After this game, Bo Ryan makes his play to be the first football/basketball coach of this era. Expect to see a bunch of fundamentallly-sound white guys go up and down the field at a plodding pace. In other words, nothing will change.

Minnesota 41, Purdue 20
Purdue fans continue to count the days until Tiller makes his exit.

Ohio State 31, Penn State 27
Penn State remembers that they haven't played anyone with a pulse on the road this season. The Spread HD's flaws are spotlighted, and JayPa is sent to his bedroom without dinner.

Big Ten Picks, Week Eight

In brief, mainly because I just got back from Chicago...

Ohio State 13, Michigan State 7
I answered some questions about this game for The Only Game that Matters. In brief, I believe in game between two very similar teams, give the edge to the side with the best unit. In this game, it's OSU's defense. I do hope I'm wrong on this one.

Northwestern 27, Purdue 14
Good news for you Boilermaker fans - Purdue will score a couple of touchdowns this week! The bad news - C.J. Bacher keeps the ball in the hands of the purple and scores more.

Iowa 20, Wisconsin 13
Don't let the record fool you, Iowa is a very good team that suffered a few brain farts that caused the three losses. As for the Wisconsin fans, if you haven't started drinking yourself death by now, Saturday around 3ish might be a good time to start.

Illinois 42, Indiana 28
Illinois gets its frustrations out the only way how - by scoring bunches of points while allowing them. Indiana, meanwhile, continues to stay in the two-pony race for worst team in the Big Ten.

Penn State 42, Michigan 7

Uh...it's going to go down like this:

Week 7 Big Ten Picks

If you're looking for an in depth preview, the Enlightened Spartan has a good one on his site here. As for me, here are my Big Ten picks in brief.

Michigan State 26, Northwestern 17

If you're like me and will be at the game in Evanston this weekend, drink everytime you hear a Wildcat fan say this: "We're going to stop Ringer and let Hoyer beat us." First off, I think Ringer's going to have a game like he did in Bloomington - decent YPC with about 30-35 carries and a run over 30 yards somewhere in there. As for Hoyer, if you're going to go single cover the wide receivers, expect three of his passes in the game to go for more than 20 yards. His throws deep are underrated. Northwestern's been good at capitalizing on teams' mistakes this season. Michigan State doesn't make enough for the Wildcats to win.

Iowa 20, Indiana 10

This Hawkeye team is much better than its 3-3 record indicates. Their problem? A propensity for shooting themselves in the foot, as they turned the ball over four times within the MSU 30 yard line last week, be it on downs, fumbles, or interceptions. My guess is that if a bad defensive team such as Minnesota can hold the Hoosiers to seven points (and yes, I realize what that says about MSU if they let IU gain 29 points), Iowa should be able to hold them to enough points for the offense to put up the usual 17-24 points. That'll be enough.

Michigan 27, Toledo 7

My guess is that Michigan holds onto the ball more than usual, and only turns it over three times. The Wolverine defense won't be playing Juice Williams this week, so Michigan should win comfortably.

Illinois 38, Minnesota 17

All thoughts of Minnesota's defense having improved will be confirmed this week, as they hold Illinois to under 40 points.

Ohio State 27, Purdue 20

Call me crazy, but I think this game may be close. For all the good he's shown so far, Terrelle Pryor is still a freshman, and that means he's going to have some mediocre performances this season. After a comeback victory in Madison, I'm guessing this game will be one of those times. Also, I can't believe Purdue only put up six points against Penn State in West Lafayette. Their offense is better than six points, and this game will show that opinion. However, the Boilermakers will still lose...but it'll be tight.

Penn State 17, Wisconsin 13

The first crack in the Spread HD appeared last week, as the Nittany Lions put up a "good enough to win" 20 points on the Boilermakers. Now they travel to Wisconsin to face an above average Badger defense. They'll be held to about 14-17 points. However, I believe that with Evridge at the helm, the ceiling for the offense is 13 points at home. That total will fall just short of a victory.

That's it for this week. I'll be down on the O'Malley's West bus trip to be in person for the Northwestern game. Take it easy, and have a good weekend.

And we're off...Big Ten predictions before Live Blog tomorrow

Finally, the 1st week of the games that count in the Big Ten. Sorry I couldn't put up a significant MSU preview like I usually do, life got in the way this week. Here we go:

Michigan State vs. Indiana

Man, IU looked bad in that Ball State loss. It's one thing to be the fourth best team in your state, it's another thing all together if that state is Indiana. However, one can never discount a team that has Kellen Davis and Greg Middleton. I fully expect Kellen Davis to have a few big plays in this game, even though MSU's secondary has improved significantly since the Cal game. However, IU's secondary has been brutalized more than MSU's has. The Hoosiers will be without three starters of their secondary. Ringer won't have as many carries as he's had in the previous weeks, simply because Brian Hoyer will feast on the secondary. If there was ever a time for Mark Dell to have a second 200 yard game this season, this is it. Indiana has playmakers on both sides of the ball, but signifcant deficiencies on both offense and defense will doom them.

Michigan State 38, Indiana 17

Northwestern vs. Iowa

Northwestern and Minnesota split for the title of "Most unimpressive 4-0 team in the Big Ten". Northwestern looks like the opposite of the Wildcat team from 2007, because the defense has mainly won games for them this year. C.J. Bacher hasn't looked like the same quarterback he was last year, is this the game he breaks out? Meanwhile, Iowa is coming off a tough loss to Pitt, and seems to have settled on Ricky Stanzi as starting quarterback. If Bacher doesn't come up with a few touchdowns, Northwestern's going to lose this game. I have a feeling he'll try....but Iowa's defensive line will carry the win for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa 24, Northwestern 17

Wisconsin vs. Michigan

Wisconsin holds the Big Ten's best win so far, @ Fresno State. It's been typical Wisconsin football so far - barrel into the defensive line with stout running back and score, or run until single coverage opens up downfield, throw football, score. Michigan's defense will look better this week, mainly because they won't have to defend horrible field position half the time. The Wolverines' offense will also be competent this week. However, competent won't cut it against the Badger defense.

Wisconsin 27, Michigan 16

Minnesota vs. Ohio State

Minnesota will probably claim the title of the Big Ten's most improved team this year, due to their 400% increase in wins to this point. This week, the Golden Gophers will face an opponent with a pulse as they face the Buckeyes. For as much as Minny's win total has improved, the defense has still allowed a lot of yards. Expect game two of the Terrelle Pryor era to be better than game one.

Ohio State 41, Minnesota 20

Purdue vs. Notre Dame

Jimmy Clausen looked like a competent quarterback last week against MSU, especially in the 3rd quarter, when he was completing 5-and-10 yard slants and running Notre Dame right down the field. He'll throw a pick or two (or three) in this game, though, and I expect Purdue to capitalize. Those interceptions will most likely be the difference in the game. As for Purdue, the Boilermaker fans might start to wonder (if they haven't already) if the best player on offense this year isn't Curtis Painter, but Kory Sheets.

Purdue 27, Notre Dame 24

Illinois vs. Penn State

Can Juice Williams and Areelie... Areellld... Benn pull the Illini to victory? It's definitely possible, but Penn State has definitely shown to be the most impressive Big Ten team to this point. Also, that game against Louisiana Lafayette has cast a lot of doubt on UI (seriously, who scores more points on Missouri than a 1-AA team?). This will be the Spread HD's first true test, and it should pass muster. It won't be as impressive as their previous games, but Penn State will decisively win.

Penn State 27, Illinois 13

Coming tomorrow: a live blog of the Indiana game.

Big 10 Pick 'em

Thanks to Gopher Nation/The Daily Gopher for putting the Pick 'Em contest together.

Here are my picks for all of the Big Ten Games this week:

Indiana over Western Kentucky
OSU over Youngstown St.
Penn St. over Coastal Carolina
Wisconsin over Akron
Iowa over Maine
Minnesota over NIU

File all these games in the "Pimping out the MAC/1-AA" category. If there's an upset in any one of these game, it's most likely going to be NIU over Minnesota, mainly due to NIU having the greatest degree of competency (that is to say: little) among all the sacrificial lambs.

Northwestern over Syracuse

Well, at least this game is against a BCS opponent. Northwestern has a chance to redeem themselves from their hilarious loss to Duke last year with an opponent of about the Blue Devils' character. Expect C.J. Bacher to throw the ball from Evanston to Chesterton.

Michigan over Utah

Now we're getting to the interesting games. For the record, I hate myself for making this pick. However, it seems like everyone is picking Utah to win this game, and in a game with the spread as close as it is (UM - 3.5 at last check), that unanimity in thought is a sign to pick the other way. I think the offense will resemble the Exxon Valdez, but the tailbacks will break 1 or 2 big plays, and the defense will get 3 takeways. That'll be enough...but barely.

MSU over Cal

See here for the preview. There's rumors that Jimmerson and Curry might be out for this game, but the 1st stringers will pull through.

Missouri over Illinois

I'm still not sold on Juice Williams. He barely had more TD tosses than interceptions last year (13/12 ratio). Mendenhall's in the NFL, and the tailback replacing him (Dufrene) has good stats, but is inexperienced (6.2 YPC, but less than 50 rushes in his career). Add to that the loss of J Leman on the defensive side, and I think Missouri wins this in decisive fashion, by a double-digit margin.

Big Ten Pickin' time

The good folks over @ SpartyMSU and The Enlightened Spartan are picking all the Spartan games this season, and they were kind enough to let me join in. Here are my picks, and I've got MSU going 8-4/5-3 this season:

Best possibility for an expected loss I didn't predict: Wisconsin. Depth could be an issue by that point in the season, and Wisconsin seems to grow 300 lb. white dudes on trees. If we lose, expect the lines to be an issue.

Best possibility to get upset: Northwestern. This game is going to be tricky like it was last year. Luckily, the crowd should be split 50/50 @ Ryan Field, and it'll be tough for C.J. Bacher to have another game against us like he did last season. Still, if Jenrette's not back by that time, our secondary's going to have to step up big time.

@ Cal - Win
EMU - Win
FAU - Win
Notre Dame - Loss
@Indiana - Win
Iowa - Win
@NW - Win
OSU - Loss
@ UM - Win
Wisky - Win
Purdue - Loss
PSU - Loss

I'll put my thinking behind each pick before each preview, which will go up the Wednesday before each game.

Big Ten FB preseason math!

If it's the middle of June, it's time for one thing - Big Ten prognostications! Here's how I think the Big Ten will sort itself out, with a few simple equations:

1. Ohio State: 1st last year + 20 returning starters = craziness to pick anyone else to occupy this spot. However, I can see them dropping a game in conference.

2. Wisconsin: Ohio State+Penn State @ Home = .500, as in they should win 1 of those 2 games. Even with a new QB, they have to go to UM when the Wolverines will be working out kinks, they'll face an Iowa team that struggled to score last year, and an MSU team which will give...God only knows. PJ Hill (#3 returning YPC), Matt Shaugnessy (DE, 2nd team All-BT '07), and an always stalwart OL will make the transition to a new QB as smooth as possible.

3. Penn State: Offense - Morelli+ (Devlin+Clark) = Competence. The defense took a huge hit when Sean Lee went out, but still returns most of its starters to get the #3 spot. Why they're #3 instead of #2 - road trips to Wisconsin and OSU at night, possibly the two worst home environments Penn State can possibly visit, especially breaking in new QBs.

4. MSU: 2008 D-Line = 2007 D-Line. The Defensive line got hit hardest by graduation, especially with the departures of Jonal St. Dic and Ervin Baldwin. Luckily, they're getting Trevor Anderson (HM All-Big East '06), and Tyler Hoover showed high production in the spring game. Hoyer should still be decent, Ringer will still be gnarly, and 4th is what the Spartans will be this year.

5. Illinois: 2008 Juice Williams - Rashard Mendenhall = 2006 Juice Williams. This is not a good thing. Especially when you have to replace J Leman as well. However, there's too much talent on this team not to fall down too far.

6. Purdue: Purdue's Offense = 1/Purdue's Defense. Curtis Painter will probably be the All-Time Big Ten passing leader when this year is said and done, but to get any farther up in the standings, the defense will have to crack down a bit harder. Thus, the mediocre defense is the reciprocal of their explosive offense, and the Boilermakers will go as far as their defense takes them.

7. Michigan: 4 wins < (New Spread Offense - Mobile QB + Above Average Defense) < 11 wins - Honestly, who knows what'll happen here. Best case: Steven Threet has a 3:1 TD:INT ratio, UM's running backs (MCGUFFIE!) hold onto the ball behind their gelled OL, and they finish 10-2 (1 OOC loss, and the loss to OSU - you'll beat them eventually, just not this year.) Worst case - the OL doesn't come together, the RB combined average 3 YPC, Threet has an even TD:INT ratio, and 6-6 is their record, even with their best defensive efforts. Somehow, 7-5 seems about right (remember where this blog came from!)

8. Northwestern: sin(Bacher)*cos(Sutton)/tan(Defense) = You NW grads should be able to understand that equation. I feel Bacher's still going to make mistakes (19 Ints last year), and the Defense won't show a great improvement. However, I feel like I'll regret this ranking the most, and NW could finish as high as 4th this season (covering my ass!)

9. Iowa '07 * Police = 2/3 Iowa '07 = Iowa '08. Iowa tried to remake themselves into the late '80s Miami Hurricanes by losing the City Boyz Inc. , a couple of other players due to sexual assault charges, and, honestly, losing Jake Christensen to jaywalking wouldn't surprise me at this point. Having turmoil at RB (no returning scholarship players at that position), Iowa might be headed for a slightly down year. Why I could be massively wrong: The OL and DL should still be good, and when a team's good in the trenches, good things can happen.

10. Indiana: Offense - James Hardy + Rusty Kellen Davis = whuh-oh. Indiana rode the Believe Train all the way down to Arizona for the Insight bowl last year. However, with the defection of James Hardy to the NFL, and the suspension of star QB Kellen Davis, Indiana might be back to the old days of Indiana football. The Big Ten's returning sack leader, Greg Middleton, will do all in his power to make sure that doesn't happen, but look for a slump this year.

11. Minnesota = WORST TEAM EVAR IN '07 + Promising recruits = Contender...in 2009. Minnesota was either a hair's breath away from winning 4-5 games last year or pulling a gopher (pun intended) in the win column. New Dual-Threat QB MarQueis Gray might get a chance to start immediately, and should fit well in Tim Brewster's system. They'll win more games than last year, but it's still going to take a year or two for Goldy to climb out of the cellar.