Big Ten Basketball Preview: The Dregs

Big Ten Basketball has already started in earnest yesterday, with Michigan defeating an over matched Husky team from Michigan Tech. Since I will not start paying heavy attention until MSU's season premiere against Idaho on Sunday, I figured I would start my preview now. Here are the dregs of the Big Ten, for which making the College Basketball Invitational at the end of the season (finally, an answer to the question: which Division 1 team is 98th best?) would be an accomplishment.

One more note - If you want thought-out, statistical analysis of College Basketball, I cannot recommend Spartans Weblog highly enough. That said, he was not going to do an in-depth Big Ten preview, so hopefully I can fill that void with a little bit of thoughtful analysis and a lot of guessing. Without further ado:

11. Northwestern

I toyed with putting Indiana with this spot, but then Northwestern lost their first exhibition game to Robert Morris, an NAIA school, and that was the last brick that sealed Willie Wildcat in his tomb, crying for his cask of Amontillado.

Player to know: Kevin Coble - Probably most well known for taking part of last season off to take care of his mother stricken with cancer, the 6-8 forward would have most likely been All Big-Ten Preseason if he had played in more games last season. That said, if Northwestern has any chance this season, he'll have to average 30 ppg, 15 rebounds per game, and make the special 10 point basket from Rock 'n Jock 20 feet above the hardwood.

This season will be a success if...They have a winning record this season.

This season will be a failure if... It's Northwestern. How much worse could it get.

10. Iowa

Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. Two years ago you were upset by a 14 seed in the NCAAs, and in the past year, they turned the ball over every one in four times they had possession (thanks College Basketball Prospectus!). They'd have hope if their two top scorers didn't leave this past season (Justin Johnson to graduation, Tony Freeman to transfer), and the young Hawkeyes look to spend another year in the dregs. They shouldn't be down long though, not with Todd Lickliter (the previous mastermind at Butler) as their head coach.

Player to know: Jake Kelly - He's an anomaly in the shell of a 6-6 wing, as in his three-point FG percentage (43.5%) last year was better than his overall FG percentage (40.8%). If Iowa has any shot at a competitive season, he'll have to maintain his clip from beyond 20 feet, nine inches, and improve his shot within the perimeter.

This season will be a success if... The Hawkeyes get a few upsets in Carver Arena (not like the 42-36 abomination MSU suffered. Watch that game, and you can literally see the rims replaced by peach baskets.), and set themselves in position to win a first-round Big Ten tournament game.
This season will be a failure if... Iowa doesn't progress, and the lengthened three-pointer affects shooting more than thought. If that occurs, look for fans to pine for the days of Steve Alford.

9. Indiana

Indiana's postseason could be defined in two words: scorched earth. Goodbye Kelvin Sampson, goodbye everyone who played meaningful minutes. Senior wing Kyle Taber was the sole survivor, and now under Tom Crean, the Hoosiers hope to reach to the stars and grab ten wins by the tail. The new talent isn't anything to write home about; none of Tom Crean's seven recruits for this year were ranked over three stars by Rivals. Still, I'm intrigued. Crean's a good coach, and with no expectations, this team might pull a couple surprises. Then again, it might duke it out with Northwestern for 10th place like two hobos fighting over a bindle.

Player to know: Kyle Taber - As in if you're an Indiana fan, he'll be the only player you know from last year (and no, I didn't forget about Brett Finkelmeier or Jeremiah Rivers. If they're playing serious minutes though, look for the fans at Assembly Hall to pull a Knight and throw their seats onto the court). The forward won't have to be the second coming of D.J. White, but he will have to, at the very least, be a steady source of rebounds.

This season will be a success if... The Hoosiers pull off four to six wins in conference, and get the ball rolling for next year.

This season will be a failure if... Indiana wins two games or less in conference, and the grumbles start about seven more years on Crean's contract.

Parts two and three to come this weekend.

Week 7 Big Ten Picks

If you're looking for an in depth preview, the Enlightened Spartan has a good one on his site here. As for me, here are my Big Ten picks in brief.

Michigan State 26, Northwestern 17

If you're like me and will be at the game in Evanston this weekend, drink everytime you hear a Wildcat fan say this: "We're going to stop Ringer and let Hoyer beat us." First off, I think Ringer's going to have a game like he did in Bloomington - decent YPC with about 30-35 carries and a run over 30 yards somewhere in there. As for Hoyer, if you're going to go single cover the wide receivers, expect three of his passes in the game to go for more than 20 yards. His throws deep are underrated. Northwestern's been good at capitalizing on teams' mistakes this season. Michigan State doesn't make enough for the Wildcats to win.

Iowa 20, Indiana 10

This Hawkeye team is much better than its 3-3 record indicates. Their problem? A propensity for shooting themselves in the foot, as they turned the ball over four times within the MSU 30 yard line last week, be it on downs, fumbles, or interceptions. My guess is that if a bad defensive team such as Minnesota can hold the Hoosiers to seven points (and yes, I realize what that says about MSU if they let IU gain 29 points), Iowa should be able to hold them to enough points for the offense to put up the usual 17-24 points. That'll be enough.

Michigan 27, Toledo 7

My guess is that Michigan holds onto the ball more than usual, and only turns it over three times. The Wolverine defense won't be playing Juice Williams this week, so Michigan should win comfortably.

Illinois 38, Minnesota 17

All thoughts of Minnesota's defense having improved will be confirmed this week, as they hold Illinois to under 40 points.

Ohio State 27, Purdue 20

Call me crazy, but I think this game may be close. For all the good he's shown so far, Terrelle Pryor is still a freshman, and that means he's going to have some mediocre performances this season. After a comeback victory in Madison, I'm guessing this game will be one of those times. Also, I can't believe Purdue only put up six points against Penn State in West Lafayette. Their offense is better than six points, and this game will show that opinion. However, the Boilermakers will still lose...but it'll be tight.

Penn State 17, Wisconsin 13

The first crack in the Spread HD appeared last week, as the Nittany Lions put up a "good enough to win" 20 points on the Boilermakers. Now they travel to Wisconsin to face an above average Badger defense. They'll be held to about 14-17 points. However, I believe that with Evridge at the helm, the ceiling for the offense is 13 points at home. That total will fall just short of a victory.

That's it for this week. I'll be down on the O'Malley's West bus trip to be in person for the Northwestern game. Take it easy, and have a good weekend.

And we're off...Big Ten predictions before Live Blog tomorrow

Finally, the 1st week of the games that count in the Big Ten. Sorry I couldn't put up a significant MSU preview like I usually do, life got in the way this week. Here we go:

Michigan State vs. Indiana

Man, IU looked bad in that Ball State loss. It's one thing to be the fourth best team in your state, it's another thing all together if that state is Indiana. However, one can never discount a team that has Kellen Davis and Greg Middleton. I fully expect Kellen Davis to have a few big plays in this game, even though MSU's secondary has improved significantly since the Cal game. However, IU's secondary has been brutalized more than MSU's has. The Hoosiers will be without three starters of their secondary. Ringer won't have as many carries as he's had in the previous weeks, simply because Brian Hoyer will feast on the secondary. If there was ever a time for Mark Dell to have a second 200 yard game this season, this is it. Indiana has playmakers on both sides of the ball, but signifcant deficiencies on both offense and defense will doom them.

Michigan State 38, Indiana 17

Northwestern vs. Iowa

Northwestern and Minnesota split for the title of "Most unimpressive 4-0 team in the Big Ten". Northwestern looks like the opposite of the Wildcat team from 2007, because the defense has mainly won games for them this year. C.J. Bacher hasn't looked like the same quarterback he was last year, is this the game he breaks out? Meanwhile, Iowa is coming off a tough loss to Pitt, and seems to have settled on Ricky Stanzi as starting quarterback. If Bacher doesn't come up with a few touchdowns, Northwestern's going to lose this game. I have a feeling he'll try....but Iowa's defensive line will carry the win for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa 24, Northwestern 17

Wisconsin vs. Michigan

Wisconsin holds the Big Ten's best win so far, @ Fresno State. It's been typical Wisconsin football so far - barrel into the defensive line with stout running back and score, or run until single coverage opens up downfield, throw football, score. Michigan's defense will look better this week, mainly because they won't have to defend horrible field position half the time. The Wolverines' offense will also be competent this week. However, competent won't cut it against the Badger defense.

Wisconsin 27, Michigan 16

Minnesota vs. Ohio State

Minnesota will probably claim the title of the Big Ten's most improved team this year, due to their 400% increase in wins to this point. This week, the Golden Gophers will face an opponent with a pulse as they face the Buckeyes. For as much as Minny's win total has improved, the defense has still allowed a lot of yards. Expect game two of the Terrelle Pryor era to be better than game one.

Ohio State 41, Minnesota 20

Purdue vs. Notre Dame

Jimmy Clausen looked like a competent quarterback last week against MSU, especially in the 3rd quarter, when he was completing 5-and-10 yard slants and running Notre Dame right down the field. He'll throw a pick or two (or three) in this game, though, and I expect Purdue to capitalize. Those interceptions will most likely be the difference in the game. As for Purdue, the Boilermaker fans might start to wonder (if they haven't already) if the best player on offense this year isn't Curtis Painter, but Kory Sheets.

Purdue 27, Notre Dame 24

Illinois vs. Penn State

Can Juice Williams and Areelie... Areellld... Benn pull the Illini to victory? It's definitely possible, but Penn State has definitely shown to be the most impressive Big Ten team to this point. Also, that game against Louisiana Lafayette has cast a lot of doubt on UI (seriously, who scores more points on Missouri than a 1-AA team?). This will be the Spread HD's first true test, and it should pass muster. It won't be as impressive as their previous games, but Penn State will decisively win.

Penn State 27, Illinois 13

Coming tomorrow: a live blog of the Indiana game.

Michigan State Season Preview

Note: If you're looking for the Cal Preview, it's just below this post, or you can click here.

Another Note: This piece I wrote for EDSBS's Guest Lecturer series (sample here). Suffice to say, it's going to be a lot different then most of the normal previews you read. Just like a 70's party, throw your keys in the bowl, and go with it.

One: What color is your season? In other words, please explain the metaphorical state of your program through the metaphor of color:

Orange. Green or White is too obvious, but orange is about right; the color has drastically different meanings for the offense and defense. For the offense, orange designates explosiveness – for all the talk of Mark Dantonio going back to a more pro-set, ball control offense, MSU was first in the Big Ten in conference in both yards gained and points scored last year. For the defense, orange foretells of structural damage in the defense. The Spartans gave up the third most points in conference last year, loses most of their defensive line, and C.J. Bacher is still haunting my nightmares to this day.

Two: What historical nation and period do you resemble most right now?

Scotland, Circa early 14^th century. Scotland, whose armies were once led by a successful at first but ultimately raving madman in William Wallace (THE SCOTS ARE PILLAGING THEIR TAILS OFF, AND JOHN COMYN IS SCREWING IT UP!). William was also into taunting, such as mooning/flag planting. Wallace eventually resigned as guardian, and Scotland was in turmoil until Robert the Bruce (Dantonio) came in to right the ship. After Robert rose to King of Scotland, he had a string of defeats, which leads up to the current state of the program. The rest from here on out is prognostication for MSU/Scottish history. Robert eventually triumphed several times against England (Michigan), who was transferring over the throne from successful Edward I (Carr) to flamboyant Edward II (DickRod), much different than his father. Eventually, Scotland won their independence from England, and Edward II was executed upon a red-hot poker.

Three: You have important players. Discuss a few of them hastily.

Javon Ringer: The one player on MSU you might have heard of if you’re outside the Midwest. I won’t bore with you with the 1447 yards, 6 TDs (the Liberian Lumberjack, Jehuu Caulcrick was scoring most of those last year), and his 5.9 YPC, so I’ll say this: he has a black belt in karate. Sam McGuffie hurdles tacklers, Javon kicks their heads off.

Brian Hoyer: Interesting fact – most likely went red-green colorblind between the Penn State and Boston College bowl game last season, as he had 7 interceptions during the regular season (2^nd rated passer in the Big Ten during that period), and threw four to in the bowl game. We’ll see this year how much of his success was due to Devin Thomas.

Greg Jones: Recruited away from Minnesota after Glen Mason was canned, he started the second half of the season as a true freshman, was MSU’s leading tackler, and earned Freshman All-American honors. He’ll most likely start at MLB this season, and hopefully marks a return to the Julian Peterson Percy Snow days of LBs at State.

Four: Name two games we might actually want to watch featuring your team.

August 30^th – MSU @ Cal: It’s on prime time, so you’ve got no excuse. It’ll be the first time Hoyer plays without Devin Thomas at his disposal, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can recreate the big play with wideouts that were thrown to sparingly last season. Ringer against Cal’s experienced LB corps should be a battle, and if State wins, the next halfway difficult away crowd will be…

October 25^th – MSU @ Michigan: With an emphasis on the word “halfway” in the previous sentence. MSU has dropped the last six games in this series (some of those in spectacular fashion). If it’s a close game, I’m just glad Henne won’t be able to find Braylon Edwards or Manningham for a 4th quarter comeback. If Michigan’s one-dimensional in the offense at this time, expect to see the victory couch fires in East Lansing from space.

Four-A: Save us all some time and mention the game we’re better off NOT watching.

September 6^th: MSU v. EMU – I would’ve said Florida Atlantic, but you should watch that game just to guess FAU coach Howard Schnellenberger’s BAC on the sidelines. Even during the John L. Smith era, the Eastern Michigan game was always a guaranteed five-touchdown win.

Five: Every hero forgets something in their toolbelt. What does your team lack?

Depth on the lines, and at QB. The offensive line returns three starters, they will be decent unless injuries force second-stringers to start, of which means a few freshmen and converted defensive lineman would have to start. The defensive line has an entirely different problem; three starters graduated, and although talent exists (Trevor Anderson was honorable mention Big East in ’06, Antonio Jeremiah was a highly regarded recruit, Tyler Hoover looked good in spring ball), it’s inexperienced. In what might become an apocalypse, if Brian Hoyer goes out, there's only one quarterback on scholarship (a redshirt freshman) to replace him, and if he goes out, the natives will start to bring couches to the fire.

Six: Describe your team with a Jimmy Buffett song. No, we’re serious–do it.

Come Monday. Dad had Jimmy Buffett’s Greatest Hits, and that’s about as far as my experiences with Buffett go. I’d rather be telling you what teams in the Big Ten resemble Arcade Fire members (Win Butler = OSU, Règine Chassagne = Michigan). However, I took a liking to Come Monday, mainly because my hometown is where Hush Puppies shoes are made. This song represents a team who will make a trip to San Francisco (Berkley) during Labor Day weekend and a team that wasn’t meant for glitter rock and roll (the spread offense).

Headin' up to San Francisco
for the Labor Day weekend show,
I've got my hush-puppies on,
I guess I never was meant for
glitter rock and roll.
And honey I didn't know
that I'd be missin' you so.

Seven: We’re master wagerers. Give us a bet to place for up to ten dollars about your team.

MSU wins at least eight games this season. Between Cal, EMU, FAU, and Notre Dame in the nonconference; I think they’ll lose one of those. The away games are Indiana, NU, Michigan and Penn State. They’ll win the Indiana and Northwestern games, drop the Penn State game, and Michigan’s a toss-up. The home games are Iowa, OSU, Purdue and Wisconsin. I believe they’ll beat Iowa and Purdue, lose to OSU, with the Wisconsin game a toss-up. That means MSU needs to win both of their toss-ups, or one of their toss-ups and the bowl game, which I would put $10 on. If you really wanted to play it safe, I’d go eight, but that’s why it’s called gambling. However, I just lost $80 on blackjack at the casino, thus I'm in no mood to gamble. Play it safe and go with eight wins.

Minnesota Preview Part 2

Defense

How bad was Minnesota's defense last year? Atrocious, and only exacerbated by the loss of 2006 2nd team All-Big Ten Willie VanDeSteeg's injuries. Giving up 38 points a game, nearly six yards a carry, while being -6 in turnover differential and amassing seven sacks in the Big Ten schedule is no way to go through life, Goldy.

The defensive line should be improved though, assuming VanDeSteeg stays healthy. He had 10 sacks in '06, but as previously mentioned, suffered through injuries last year. The linebacking corps will improve as well, mainly because I'm loathe to imagine what a drop-off could look like. MLB Deon Hightower led the team in tackles for losses last year (9.5), but four-star recruit Sam Maresh could be breathing down his neck for that spot.
The Minnesota pass defense was equally as horrendous last year, allowing 289 yards through the air per game in '07; however, it wasn't that much of a fall off from '06, when they allowed 268 YPG. The two returning starters in the secondary are sophomores with 14 starts between them, while the other two starters are junior college transfers. If the secondary improves, it won't be by much.

Special Teams

Last year, Jason Giannini eventually ceded to Joel Monroe. Monroe made the best of what he was given, going 28-28 on point afters, and 7-9 on field goals, including a 54 yarder, the longest field goal made by any Big Ten kicker last year. Enjoy the Metrodome for one last year Joel, because in 2009, your job, along with the ball, is going to get a little harder in the chilly Minnesota fall. The punter's name escapes me right now, but I remember he was in the top half of the Big Ten. I'll update this as soon as I remember, but he was solid, and that's one of the few parts of their game that Minnesota won't have to worry about.

Outlook

Minnesota lost more than a fair share of close games last season, and should look to improve. They could go 4-0 in their nonconference, but with a trip to MAC title contender Bowling Green and much improved Sun Belt frontrunner Florida Atlantic, 3-1 or, God forbid, 2-2 is more likely. However, they should win at least one of those Big Ten games that eluded them last season, and 4-8 seems like a sound prediction, with good chances for a bowl trip in 2009.

Stuck Between Stations - Minnesota Preview Part 1

This is part 1 of the forementioned Minnesta preview. Part 2 should be up tonight. Hopefully.


Do you recognize this man, Golden Gopher fans? This is a picture of The Hold Steady lead singer, Craig Finn, proud Minnesotan in his own right. What does this have in common with last season, you ask? He sings a lot about drugged up, boozed out characters in his songs, and if you root for Minnesota, you were probably drinking hand sanitizer from August til November. Without further ado, here's the preview:

2007 In Review - Lord, I'm Discouraged

In a word? Ouch. "Lord, I'm Discouraged" is a song off of The Hold Steady's new album, Stay Positive, which depicts a girl who meets new friends (Brewster), starts taking popular drugs (the spread offense), and in the end, the narrator of the song states, "I mostly just pray she won't die." How did you suffer such a fall from grace? Let's review (If you're a Minnesota fan, please stick with this preview. I promise, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.).

Glen Mason was canned in '06, and Tim Brewster, whose previous greatest accomplishment was getting Vince Young to Texas, stepped in. Minnesota went from a power running attack that was guaranteed to produce a great running and an above average one, to a spread offense. I'll talk about how the offense and defense functioned later, but for now, let's give this one sentence overview: If you're a pessimist, Minnesota was an OT away from going 0-12; if you're an optimist, you see that Minnesota lost six of those games by seven or less points (granted, one of those was to 1-AA [PLAYOFF SUBDIVISION TEAM! GET IT RIGHT OR PAY THE PRICE! - Ed.] Ahem. Playoff Subdivision North Dakota State.)

OFFENSE - Stay Positive!

"Stay Positive", off of The Hold Steady album of the same name, has a chorus that goes, "We gotta stay positive." The Minnesota offense surely didn't play like a 1-11 team last year; they were 7th in Big 10 games in yards gained, third in passing yards, and third in sacks allowed (mainly due to Adam Weber's mobility). However, the flipside to that coin is that they were eighth in Big Ten games in turnovers. The two points most damning: tenth in points scored, and rock bottom in yards per rush.

One would assume Adam Weber would be the starter. In praise of him, he was essentially as good as Juice Williams last year. Weber had a slightly better passer rating (120.8 to 119.2), and had much better production in total offense (292.7 yards to Juice's 192.2). Weber's flashing red weak spot in his forehead? Turnovers. He threw 24 TDs to 19 INTs, but those are still a lot of interceptions (just ask C.J. Bacher). Weber was 9th in the Big Ten in passing efficiency, and two new QBs in the program, highly touted junior college recruit David Pittman and four-star high school recruit MarQueis Gray should push him during training camp, but for a ludicrous prediction in June, Weber will still hold the spot.

Running Back wise? Meh. Duane Bennett is projected to be the starter, but he's no Laurence Maroney, let alone Amir Pinnix. This problem only gets compounded by the fact that the offensive line couldn't produce much on the ground last year, and with the hog mollies still kind of green (no seniors slated to start, but three starters return), there should be enough improvement to get them out of the cellar YPC-wise, if the play calls support it.

As for Wide Receiver, out of the two main threats last year, Ernie Wheelwright left, but Eric Decker (67 receptions, 9 TDs, 13.6 YPC) returns. The rest of the wideouts had between 10-23 catches last year, which means a second option will have to step up, but as many teams can attest, as long as one deep threat exists, the passing attack should be healthy. The tight end should be set as well, Jack Simmons was decent until he got injured last year.

Defense, Special teams and 2008 predictions to come in part 2...