The 3x3 Preview: Oakland

Welcome to the way that I'll be doing most of my basketball previews from now, the 3x3 preview. In this segment, I'll state three strengths of the opposing team, three of their weaknesses, and three things State needs to do to win. That said, let's get to the preview.

DOSSIER ON THE OAKLAND (MI) GRIZZLIES

• Kenpom Rank: 149
• W-L Record: 8-6
• Conference Record (Summit League): 1-1
• Best Wins: @Oregon, @Wisconsin-Green Bay
• Noteworthy Losses: @Syracuse (by 20), @ Iowa (by 9), Michigan @ the Palace (by 13)

THREE REASONS TO SHOW A MODICUM OF CONCERN

• The Grizzlies are above average offensive rebounders. Anyone watching the Texas game knows that one of the main barriers to Michigan State blowing the game wide open was that they allowed Texas to get position inside and collect their missed shots at a high clip. I'm not saying that Oakland will show the same propensity to grab their misfires, but it is something to be aware of, as they rebound 36.4% of their missed shots, good enough to put them in the top quarter of Division I. This has helped them score more than a point per possession (Offensive efficiency of 107.2, which puts them in the upper tier of Division I teams).
  
• They can block shots, if given the chance. Oakland blocks 11.2% of opponents' shots, and that is good enough to put them 79th in Division I in that category. However, as we'll soon see, that's about the only aspect of their defensive game that is above average.
• They almost beat MSU last year. At the Breslin. The Grizzlies played Michigan State close last year when they lost 75-71 in East Lansing. These bears won't be intimidated by the Green and White.

THREE REASONS TO NOT GO OVERBOARD AND PREDICT AN OAKLAND WIN

• The Grizzlies are a terrible, TURRIBLE defensive team. They give up 1.055 points per possession, which puts them on top...of the worst 25% teams in the NCAA. Their big Achilles' Heel is interior defense, where they allow 50.9% of twos to be made. Michigan State takes a great many more twos than threes (only 24% of MSU's shots are threes, that is extremely low), so look for this point to be heavily exploited.
• Goran Suton is back. No one should be better able to exploit the shoddy interior defense of Oakland than the Bosnian Bomber, who missed only one shot in the victory against Texas. Expect surprisingly graceful drives to the basket and 12-14 footers to drop from the big man.
• Did I mention the Grizzlies give up a lot of offensive rebounds. For as good as Oakland is in collecting rebounds, they're just as bad in giving them up, as they allow their opponents to rebound their misses about 39% of the time. I wouldn't worry about it if I were the Grizzlies, it's not like Izzo stresses offensive rebounds or anything like that.

THREE THINGS THE SPARTANS NEED TO DO

• Do not allow second chances. Oakland's been good at collecting offensive rebounds, and they have a couple of 6-10/6-11 players who can put those rebounds back in if need be. Take away those chances and see if Oakland can make the shots.
• Go inside, and keep going inside. Despite that height on the interior, Oakland still has weak two point defense. Suton, Morgan and Roe need to go inside and keep going inside.
• Make free throws. Going inside is going to translate to many trips to the foul line. Here's where Delvon can't have a repeat of the Texas game, when he made none of his foul shots in six attempts.

WHAT WILL (BUT PROBABLY WON'T) HAPPEN

Suton and Morgan get inside repeatedly, but Oakland gets enough offensive rebounds to make it a game in the first half. In the second half, Michigan State starts to own the boards and pulls away.

FINAL SCORE: MSU 82, OAKLAND 65

Longhorn'd - The Texas Preview

The Dossier on Texas:

GENERAL INFORMATION

• Win-Loss Record: 9-1
• Best Wins: UCLA, Villanova (Neutral Court), Oregon
• The Loss: Notre Dame (@ Maui)
• #5 in both AP/Coaches' Polls
• #22 in Kenpom ranking

WHAT THE LONGHORNS DO WELL

• Defend, especially on the interior. Texas is the #12 team in the nation in defensive efficiency; their opponents score 0.833 points per possession (anything under 1 is pretty good, get that number below 0.85 and we're talking national title contender). They're also one of the best blocking teams in the nation. Texas blocks 17.6% of all opponents' shots.
• Shoot the dang three. Well, this item bodes well. Texas' leading scorer, A.J. Abrams, has been shooting 47% from behind the arc. He's also averaging about 36 minutes a games so expect to see him a lot. Texas also has two other players shooting above 38% on their threes (Damion James and Connor Atchley, the latter of which looks like he was kidnapped from the Bo Ryan Cloning Facility of Tall White Guys that Can Shoot), which will spell trouble for the Spartans if their three point defense stays mediocre.
• Hold onto the ball. Texas only turns over the ball about 13 times a game, a little better than average. Don't expect to rip the ball away from Abrams, he only turns it over about once per game.

DO WE HAVE A CHANCE? WHERE DO THEY SUCK?

• Anything involving the free throw line. The Longhorns shoot 61.2% from the foul line, 307th in Division I. They have four players in their main rotation that shoot under 60%, so if the game is close in the end, there should always be a favorable person to foul.
• Their offensive percentage inside the arc is strikingly average. UT shoots 48% on their twos, and that percentage puts them at 171st in the nation.
• But yet they still take many more twos than threes. Only 25% of Texas' shots are threes, despite how well they shoot the ball from 20 feet, nine inches.

ALRIGHT, I'LL BITE. HOW DOES MSU WIN THIS GAME?

• Chris Allen becomes unconscious behind the arc. Texas has a very strong interior defense, so accurate perimeter shooting will be pivotal for extending the interior defense and creating cracks for passing lanes inside. Allen can help immensely if he makes Texas guard him anywhere inside 25 feet.
• By being unafraid to foul anywhere inside the arc. This point is tailor-made for Raymar to excel. Make Texas earn a victory by hitting their foul shots.
• HOLD ONTO THE CONSARNED BALL! Self-explanatory, no stats needed.

WHAT HAPPENS IN HOUSTON?

I believe that this game is going to be nip and tuck all the way through. However, I think MSU is going to create their own undoing with a few too many turnovers and a few too many Abrams threes.

Texas 73, MSU 65.

The Aftermath - The Citadel

Another day, another win, but this one was semi-close all the way through. MSU stormed out to an 18 point lead, but that lead was cut to eight by halftime. The second half was back and forth with MSU holding leads oscillating between 6 and 14 points until the game mercifully ended. What do we know?

• The Citadel completed 40% (10-25) of their three pointers. This sounds bad, but if you saw a game, you witnessed the Bulldogs hitting a few threes from five feet behind the arc. If I saw this stat without watching the game I'd say that stat would be a cause for alarm, but watching the game, I would call it a cause for minor concern.
• That Raymar continues to do two things - dominate teams with lesser talent and get in foul trouble. His 26 points and 10 boards were good, but once again, he had four fouls by about midway through the second half.
• It didn't look like MSU shot many three pointers, but upon review, they were 2 for 9, with Chris Allen having a 1-6 off night. Perhaps the reason for this was that they were very successful inside the arc; they shot 52.9% of their twos.
• Free throw shooting continues to be a point of mediocrity. 65% will not get it done during the Big Ten season. The main offenders once again are those who you would mainly suspect, as Gray and Roe combined to go 6 for 12.
• The good news: Michigan State out rebounded the Citadel by 7. The bad news: The Bulldogs grabbed 15 offensive rebounds. Yikes.
• I didn't notice the turnovers too much, but my eyebrows raised when I saw the number "5" in Travis's row for turnovers.
  

Here's where I insert the typical "an ugly win is still a win" sentiment, which is almost always followed by "they'll have to play a lot better to win against better teams" sentiment. Those thoughts are typical because they're true, and going down to Houston to play Texas will need an improvement in play. However, I'll wait until tomorrow to preview the Longhorns. As for now, be glad that this game can now safely be ignored and start getting pumped for Saturday.

A Brief Preview of The Citadel

What is The Citadel, you ask? The Citadel, aka the Military College of South Carolina, was founded in Charleston in 1844. Less than two decades later, Fort Sumter in Charleston was attacked, and the Civil War (or the War of Yankee Arrogance, depending on where in this country you were taught) began. I'm not saying the two are related, but I am heavily, heavily urging you to reach that conclusion on your own. Now, about 150 years later, MSU looks to score one for the Yanks. Here's the rundown of The Citadel's team.

• The Citadel's record is 5-5 this season, with wins against schools you didn't even know were schools, such as Grace Bible, Cincinnati Christian, and Charleston Southern.
• In other news, Charleston is apparently big enough to have a directional school.
• And the losses? They lost to Iowa by 22 and Virginia Commonwealth by 23.
• On kenpom.com, they're the 320th ranked team out of a total 344 teams (take that, North Carolina Central!), and their defense is ranked 332nd - worse than Alcorn State, who you last saw being depantsed in the Breslin Center.
• The one thing they've done well so far - hit the offensive boards. They're the 44th ranked team in offensive rebounding percentage (measures how often a team grabs an offensive rebound off a miss). 40% of their shots are from behind the three point line (uh oh), but they make less than 30% of those shots (relief).

Kenpom.com predicts an 85-52 MSU win, with a zero percent chance of The Citadel winning. This game will mainly be a tune-up for the big game in Houston on Saturday against Texas. Suton has been practicing since Monday, and hopefully he gets a few minutes of playing time. That said, I expect this game to be a bit slower than the Alcorn State game, but still should be an easy win because the Spartans are playing a low-major team, and are playing at home.

Prediction: MSU 92, The Citadel 64.

The Aftermath - IPFW

On a game which MSU was expected to win, they did...but getting to the win was a bumpy, bumpy ride, which the 70-59 score might not indicate. MSU's points per possession (OP^3) was good (70 points for 63 possessions = 1.11 points per possession, anything above one is good), and their defense was...meh, as 0.95 points per possesion (DP^3, the inverse of OP^3 - here, anything below one is good, but I was expecting more against IPFW) were allowed. As I was listening to the game online, I kept asking myself, how could the game be this close? I went through the usual suspects:

• Turnovers? Surprisingly, turnovers aren't the main culprit. MSU turned the ball over a lot in the first half, but finished the game with 10 total turnovers, three less than IPFW's 13.
• Free Throw Shooting? Slightly out of the norm, with Spartan players going 19-28 from the line (67.9%). If MSU shoots their typical 75-80%, they win by 13 instead of 11. Still, the shaky performance is not solely the fault of below average foul shots. Point to take completely out of context on message boards: Delvon Roe was 1-4 on free throws.
  
• Rebounding? Back to normal after getting outrebounded against Idaho. MSU recovered 38 rebounds to IPFW's 28, with 16 of those 38 coming on the offensive glass.
• Bad three point shooting night? Now we're starting to get somewhere. MSU shot 27% on their threes. Compared to their 37% 3-point percentage from last year, that percentage fell off a bit. Let's consider those misfires the secondary cause.
• Bad shooting defense? I didn't see the game, but according to the stats, this would appear to be the main cause of struggles tonight. IPFW shot 46% overall and 39% from three. Those values are much greater than the 40% and 31% respectively allowed last year. Hopefully this was just a hot shooting night for a couple players from IPFW; the stats show this to be the case as Ben Botts and David Carson were a combined 7-11 from three, all other IPFW players were 0-7. I hope the three-point defense isn't a trend, as Idaho shot 46% (6-13) from behind the arc.

What was good about this game? Raymar completely took over the game in the second half, making most of the key baskets to put IPFW away. Lucas was solid as well, chipping in 17 points, and three assists against one turnover. Delvon Roe scored his first points as a Spartan, putting in nine points on 4-7 shooting, and contributing a couple of blocks.

In conclusion, this game could've been disasterous, but it wasn't. For that, I am thankful, but let's hope that this game isn't a sign of things to come.

Big Ten Basketball Preview: The Dregs

Big Ten Basketball has already started in earnest yesterday, with Michigan defeating an over matched Husky team from Michigan Tech. Since I will not start paying heavy attention until MSU's season premiere against Idaho on Sunday, I figured I would start my preview now. Here are the dregs of the Big Ten, for which making the College Basketball Invitational at the end of the season (finally, an answer to the question: which Division 1 team is 98th best?) would be an accomplishment.

One more note - If you want thought-out, statistical analysis of College Basketball, I cannot recommend Spartans Weblog highly enough. That said, he was not going to do an in-depth Big Ten preview, so hopefully I can fill that void with a little bit of thoughtful analysis and a lot of guessing. Without further ado:

11. Northwestern

I toyed with putting Indiana with this spot, but then Northwestern lost their first exhibition game to Robert Morris, an NAIA school, and that was the last brick that sealed Willie Wildcat in his tomb, crying for his cask of Amontillado.

Player to know: Kevin Coble - Probably most well known for taking part of last season off to take care of his mother stricken with cancer, the 6-8 forward would have most likely been All Big-Ten Preseason if he had played in more games last season. That said, if Northwestern has any chance this season, he'll have to average 30 ppg, 15 rebounds per game, and make the special 10 point basket from Rock 'n Jock 20 feet above the hardwood.

This season will be a success if...They have a winning record this season.

This season will be a failure if... It's Northwestern. How much worse could it get.

10. Iowa

Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. Two years ago you were upset by a 14 seed in the NCAAs, and in the past year, they turned the ball over every one in four times they had possession (thanks College Basketball Prospectus!). They'd have hope if their two top scorers didn't leave this past season (Justin Johnson to graduation, Tony Freeman to transfer), and the young Hawkeyes look to spend another year in the dregs. They shouldn't be down long though, not with Todd Lickliter (the previous mastermind at Butler) as their head coach.

Player to know: Jake Kelly - He's an anomaly in the shell of a 6-6 wing, as in his three-point FG percentage (43.5%) last year was better than his overall FG percentage (40.8%). If Iowa has any shot at a competitive season, he'll have to maintain his clip from beyond 20 feet, nine inches, and improve his shot within the perimeter.

This season will be a success if... The Hawkeyes get a few upsets in Carver Arena (not like the 42-36 abomination MSU suffered. Watch that game, and you can literally see the rims replaced by peach baskets.), and set themselves in position to win a first-round Big Ten tournament game.
This season will be a failure if... Iowa doesn't progress, and the lengthened three-pointer affects shooting more than thought. If that occurs, look for fans to pine for the days of Steve Alford.

9. Indiana

Indiana's postseason could be defined in two words: scorched earth. Goodbye Kelvin Sampson, goodbye everyone who played meaningful minutes. Senior wing Kyle Taber was the sole survivor, and now under Tom Crean, the Hoosiers hope to reach to the stars and grab ten wins by the tail. The new talent isn't anything to write home about; none of Tom Crean's seven recruits for this year were ranked over three stars by Rivals. Still, I'm intrigued. Crean's a good coach, and with no expectations, this team might pull a couple surprises. Then again, it might duke it out with Northwestern for 10th place like two hobos fighting over a bindle.

Player to know: Kyle Taber - As in if you're an Indiana fan, he'll be the only player you know from last year (and no, I didn't forget about Brett Finkelmeier or Jeremiah Rivers. If they're playing serious minutes though, look for the fans at Assembly Hall to pull a Knight and throw their seats onto the court). The forward won't have to be the second coming of D.J. White, but he will have to, at the very least, be a steady source of rebounds.

This season will be a success if... The Hoosiers pull off four to six wins in conference, and get the ball rolling for next year.

This season will be a failure if... Indiana wins two games or less in conference, and the grumbles start about seven more years on Crean's contract.

Parts two and three to come this weekend.

Basketball Schedule Released and a Programming Note

Programming Note: The EMU preview will be up tomorrow. It won't be as intensive as the Cal one, but it'll give you something to mull while you defecate.

At long last, the basketball schedule was released for the Big Ten. Here's what MSU is facing:

November

Wed. 5 NORTHERN MICHIGAN (Exhibition) East Lansing, Mich. TBA
Mon. 10 LAKE SUPERIOR STATE (Exhibition) East Lansing, Mich. TBA
Sun. 16 IDAHO East Lansing, Mich. TBA
Wed. 19 at IPFW Fort Wayne, Ind. TBA
Thur.-Sun. 27-30 Old Spice Classic Orlando, Fla.
Thur. 27 vs. Maryland (ESPN2) Orlando, Fla. 7 p.m.
Fri. 28 vs. Gonzaga/Oklahoma State (ESPN/ESPNU) Orlando, Fla. 5:30/8 p.m.
Sun. 30 vs. Siena/Tennessee/Wichita State/Georgetown (ESPN2/ESPNU) Orlando, Fla. TBA

December

Wed. 3 vs. North Carolina# (Big Ten/ACC Challenge) (ESPN) Detroit, Mich. 9 p.m.
Sun 7 BRADLEY East Lansing, Mich. TBA
Sat. 13 ALCORN STATE East Lansing, Mich. TBA
Wed. 17 THE CITADEL East Lansing, Mich. TBA
Sat. 20 vs. Texas$ Houston, Texas TBA
Sat. 27 vs. Oakland^ Auburn Hills, Mich. TBA
Wed. 31 at Minnesota (Big Ten Network) Minneapolis, Minn. 6 p.m.

January

Sat. 3 at Northwestern (Big Ten Network) Evanston, Ill. 7 p.m.
Tues. 6 OHIO STATE (ESPN2) East Lansing, Mich. 7 p.m.
Sat. 10 KANSAS East Lansing, Mich. TBA
Wed. 14 at Penn State (Big Ten Network) State College, Pa. 6:30 p.m.
Sat. 17 ILLINOIS (ESPN) East Lansing, Mich. 4 p.m.
Wed. 21 NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten Network) East Lansing, Mich. 6:30 p.m.
Sun. 25 at Ohio State (CBS) Columbus, Ohio 3:45 p.m.
Thur. 29 at Iowa (ESPN/ESPN2) Iowa City, Iowa 7 p.m.

February

Sun. 1 PENN STATE (Big Ten Network) East Lansing, Mich. 12 p.m.
Wed. 4 MINNESOTA (Big Ten Network) East Lansing, Mich. 8:30 p.m.
Sat. 7 INDIANA (ESPN) East Lansing, Mich. 4 p.m.
Tues. 10 at Michigan (ESPN) Ann Arbor, Mich. 7 p.m.
Tues. 17 at Purdue (ESPN) West Lafayette, Ind. 7 p.m.
Sun. 22 WISCONSIN (CBS, ESPN, Big Ten Network) East Lansing, Mich. TBA
Wed. 25 IOWA (Big Ten Network) East Lansing, Mich. 8:30 p.m.
Sat.-Sun. 28-1 at Illinois (CBS, ESPN, Big Ten Network) Champaign, Ill. TBA

March

T/W/T 3/4/5 at Indiana (ESPN, ESPN2, Big Ten Network) Bloomington, Ind. TBA
Sat.-Sun. 7/8 PURDUE (CBS, ESPN, Big Ten Network) East Lansing, Mich. TBA

My thoughts:

• MSU's Winter break goes four weeks instead of the usual three this year. What does that mean? It means that the Izzone definitely won't be there for a good Ohio State team and might not be there for defending NCAA champ Kansas. Whoops.
• The Big Ten season starts off again with two road games: A rapidly improving Minnesota and a continually-chained-in-the-basement-like-a-mutant-stepchild Northwestern. This isn't horrible, the Big Ten has surely treated the Spartans worse in the past.
• The two opponents that are faced once? At Michigan, and Wisconsin at home. This is definitely nicer than last year, when it was the other way around.
• The biggest tests close out the schedule, as the three most likely biggest games are in the last six: at Purdue, Wisconsin at home, and in what could be a de facto Big Ten Championship game, Purdue at home to close out the season.

All in all, I'm happy with the schedule this year. The toughest teams aren't back-to-back, and the Big Ten schedule difficulty level is decent in the beginning before getting to the real meat at the end.