Friday, November 21, 2008

A Concise PSU-MSU Preview

Three things MSU must do to win:
  • Someway, somehow, get turnovers while holding onto the ball. In the games against the better teams that they've won (Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin), the Spartans had a positive turnover margin. This'll have to happen again, and I give it about a 50-50 shot of happening.
  • Ringer must run successfully, especially to the outside. It seems to be every time Ringer tries to bounce it outside, he'll end up getting a couple yards, which is much better than running it straight into PSU's extremely capable front seven. Only Shonn Greene has been able to be successful running the ball this year against the Nittany Lions. However, Iowa has a better OL than MSU, and I'm just not sure the linemen can move fast enough to provide the necessary blocks. The chances that Ringer goes over 100 yards and averages over 4.0 YPC - 15%.
  • The defense cannot allow more than 2 plays of more than 20 yards. Penn State's offense may seem to be completing fewer big plays lately, and hopefully, that's the way that'll stay. However, with playmakers like Derrick Williams and Evan Royster on offense, one never knows when they'll bust a big play. Chances of this happening: 35%.
Multiplying 0.5*0.15*0.35 = A 2.63% chance of MSU winning this game. This seems about right. Hey, at least there's a chance, but it goes without saying that I'd feel much more comfortable if Anthony Morelli was behind center for Penn State. MSU will try their best, but fall short. A New Year's Day bowl is nothing to scoff at, and my only complaint is that the Outback Bowl starts at 10 AM Central Time.

Final Score: PSU 27, MSU 13.

1 comment:

Opie said...

Hey Pete.. come on.. where's your Green Cool-Ade ? They got a better than 25% chance of winning not <5%..

By the way, you ever going to have beers with ES and myself ?

Hope they Win... I have a feeling they will...