Thursday, June 12, 2008

Big Ten FB preseason math!

If it's the middle of June, it's time for one thing - Big Ten prognostications! Here's how I think the Big Ten will sort itself out, with a few simple equations:

1. Ohio State: 1st last year + 20 returning starters = craziness to pick anyone else to occupy this spot. However, I can see them dropping a game in conference.

2. Wisconsin: Ohio State+Penn State @ Home = .500, as in they should win 1 of those 2 games. Even with a new QB, they have to go to UM when the Wolverines will be working out kinks, they'll face an Iowa team that struggled to score last year, and an MSU team which will give...God only knows. PJ Hill (#3 returning YPC), Matt Shaugnessy (DE, 2nd team All-BT '07), and an always stalwart OL will make the transition to a new QB as smooth as possible.

3. Penn State: Offense - Morelli+ (Devlin+Clark) = Competence. The defense took a huge hit when Sean Lee went out, but still returns most of its starters to get the #3 spot. Why they're #3 instead of #2 - road trips to Wisconsin and OSU at night, possibly the two worst home environments Penn State can possibly visit, especially breaking in new QBs.

4. MSU: 2008 D-Line = 2007 D-Line. The Defensive line got hit hardest by graduation, especially with the departures of Jonal St. Dic and Ervin Baldwin. Luckily, they're getting Trevor Anderson (HM All-Big East '06), and Tyler Hoover showed high production in the spring game. Hoyer should still be decent, Ringer will still be gnarly, and 4th is what the Spartans will be this year.

5. Illinois: 2008 Juice Williams - Rashard Mendenhall = 2006 Juice Williams. This is not a good thing. Especially when you have to replace J Leman as well. However, there's too much talent on this team not to fall down too far.

6. Purdue: Purdue's Offense = 1/Purdue's Defense. Curtis Painter will probably be the All-Time Big Ten passing leader when this year is said and done, but to get any farther up in the standings, the defense will have to crack down a bit harder. Thus, the mediocre defense is the reciprocal of their explosive offense, and the Boilermakers will go as far as their defense takes them.

7. Michigan: 4 wins < (New Spread Offense - Mobile QB + Above Average Defense) < 11 wins - Honestly, who knows what'll happen here. Best case: Steven Threet has a 3:1 TD:INT ratio, UM's running backs (MCGUFFIE!) hold onto the ball behind their gelled OL, and they finish 10-2 (1 OOC loss, and the loss to OSU - you'll beat them eventually, just not this year.) Worst case - the OL doesn't come together, the RB combined average 3 YPC, Threet has an even TD:INT ratio, and 6-6 is their record, even with their best defensive efforts. Somehow, 7-5 seems about right (remember where this blog came from!)

8. Northwestern: sin(Bacher)*cos(Sutton)/tan(Defense) = You NW grads should be able to understand that equation. I feel Bacher's still going to make mistakes (19 Ints last year), and the Defense won't show a great improvement. However, I feel like I'll regret this ranking the most, and NW could finish as high as 4th this season (covering my ass!)

9. Iowa '07 * Police = 2/3 Iowa '07 = Iowa '08. Iowa tried to remake themselves into the late '80s Miami Hurricanes by losing the City Boyz Inc. , a couple of other players due to sexual assault charges, and, honestly, losing Jake Christensen to jaywalking wouldn't surprise me at this point. Having turmoil at RB (no returning scholarship players at that position), Iowa might be headed for a slightly down year. Why I could be massively wrong: The OL and DL should still be good, and when a team's good in the trenches, good things can happen.

10. Indiana: Offense - James Hardy + Rusty Kellen Davis = whuh-oh. Indiana rode the Believe Train all the way down to Arizona for the Insight bowl last year. However, with the defection of James Hardy to the NFL, and the suspension of star QB Kellen Davis, Indiana might be back to the old days of Indiana football. The Big Ten's returning sack leader, Greg Middleton, will do all in his power to make sure that doesn't happen, but look for a slump this year.

11. Minnesota = WORST TEAM EVAR IN '07 + Promising recruits = Contender...in 2009. Minnesota was either a hair's breath away from winning 4-5 games last year or pulling a gopher (pun intended) in the win column. New Dual-Threat QB MarQueis Gray might get a chance to start immediately, and should fit well in Tim Brewster's system. They'll win more games than last year, but it's still going to take a year or two for Goldy to climb out of the cellar.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

ZOMG YOU ARE SO HOOTTTZ ME WUNT TO BANJ JOO

Terd Fergeson said...

MSU FTW ROFLCOPTER

H0y3r is da H@xX0rZ!

Anonymous said...

Post 1 is probably Nasty, Post 2 is definetly Frenchy, and this post is a dude who saw you wear a grown womans shirt as a diaper..

Anonymous said...

Actually this is nasty and i did not post one or two lol. As much as i want to see michigan do bad they always seem to pull something out of their ass so id put them a little higher than a 7.. 5 or 6 but no higher than 5

G0EL Pete said...

Thanks y'all. Yeah, I toyed about putting UM at 6, but I think Purdue's offense won't throw away a couple games like Michigan's offense will, thus they are ahead (barely) of UM.

Anonymous said...

No offense, but i think you've got your green glasses on... no way MSU finishes above illinois, even without mendenhall, and despite all the transition-y stuff going on at Michigan, they haven't had a losing season in forever, so i'd count on them to be 7-5. MSU, Purdue and Michigan should all be in the hunt for the 5th position, I'd lean Michigan, MSU, Purdue because of MSU habit of losing close games. Maybe they'll break that habit this year, but they've been "on the cusp" for about 3 years now, so I'm not going to believe it until I see it.

G0EL Pete said...

To Anonymous above my comment, am I wearing my green glasses? Yes, of course. This blog is MSUcentric, and, crossing the line between an optimist and a realist, I truly believe that MSU can finish 4th in the Big Televen this year. If MSU finishes 7-5, I'll still be content, and I can see that possiblitity happen as well. However, one aspect, if you've followed MSU for the past 5 years, you might have seen the change: Michigan State would've lost to Purdue and Penn State in the tail end of the years before 2007, that's why I'm betting a change will come around. I'm hoping MSU finishes 4th, but I can see your point (7th, I hope not) as well. Anyway, thanks for posting.